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Gold prices have retreated from record highs following the US election, influenced by rising inflation at 2.60% for October and steady core inflation at 3.3%. The Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut interest rates amid economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties may support gold demand, with the $2,500 mark seen as a potential support zone.
Central banks globally are expected to lower borrowing costs as inflation eases from recent highs, with some emerging markets already cutting rates. While inflation has decreased, the final push to reach the 2% target remains challenging, particularly as underlying price pressures persist. Energy prices, a significant inflation driver, have retreated from their peaks, but elevated inflation continues in some regions, impacting asset prices and housing markets.
The European Central Bank is set to enhance its focus on geopolitical risks affecting banks, as supervision head Claudia Buch prepares to prioritize these concerns in the upcoming annual supervisory agenda. This shift will involve increased information requests and on-site inspections to assess banks' exposure to political events, including wars.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn indicated that a December interest-rate cut is likely, with potential for further reductions. He noted that disinflation in the euro area is progressing well, while the growth outlook appears to be weakening, reinforcing the case for a rate cut.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann indicated that a rate cut in December is a possibility, though not guaranteed. He stated, “As things currently stand, the possibility exists... but that doesn’t mean that it will automatically happen.”
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf emphasized the need for a cautious approach regarding interest-rate cuts. In a recent speech, he stated that officials should carefully assess conditions and not rush, as the finish line is in sight, advocating for prudence in monetary policy decisions.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot expressed optimism about the Euro-Zone economy, citing a moderation in inflation and declining borrowing costs. He attributed recent sluggish growth to monetary-policy tightening aimed at controlling consumer prices and noted rising confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, indicated that more banks in the euro zone are expected to seek funding from the European Central Bank as the supply of bonds diminishes. While current liquidity remains ample, this situation is anticipated to shift as quantitative tightening progresses steadily.
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that potential import tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump could harm the global economy. He noted that such measures could weaken economic output, increase inflationary pressures, and disrupt established trade flows. The ECB plans to adjust its outlook based on the new administration's policies.
German government bond prices remained stable after a previous decline, with the benchmark Euro-Bund futures contract down 0.03% to 131.46 points. The yield on ten-year Bunds stands at 2.41%, as better-than-expected economic data and rising inflation in the eurozone have influenced demand. Despite a 2.0% increase in consumer prices in October, the European Central Bank is expected to proceed with a rate cut in December amid ongoing wage negotiations and high inflation risks.
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